predictions and results, as of june 3, 2010...
By 1voxpopuli on Jun 3, 2010 | In morphine dreams, what the f...?, extra economic news
on monday night, october 6, 2008 at 11:41 pm, i made this prediction about the dow jones industrial average on another website...
"down at least 500 during the day, likely close to that at the close...conservative estimate for the week...dow closes friday at 8500..."
http://www.answerbag.com/a_view/4210110
the djia closed down 508.39 tuesday...
i posted those predictions here, as i changed this site from an art portfolio to a blog, on wednesday, october 8, 2008...
the dow closed the week at 8451.19, less than 50 points from my prediction...
http://dowjonesclose.com/2008.html
that amounted to a loss of 1,874.19 points (which was over 18% of its value), for the week...from monday's close until friday's, the four day period for which i predicted, the dow dropped 1504.31 points...a loss of more than 15% of the market's value...with a hunch i based upon the market's drop on monday, while wall street analysts were forecasting a rebound, i correctly anticipated one of the worst weeks in wall street history...
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on this site, wednesday, december 31 2008...
"i expect double-digit unemployment in the second quarter of 2009, if not sooner..."
just six weeks earlier, the federal reserve had projected that the unemployment rate would rise to between 7.1 percent and 7.6 percent during 2009...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27806827
and it did...within the first month of the year...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29050656
on february 18, 2009, seven weeks after my prediction, the fed altered its projection, stating that the unemployment rate would rise to between 8.5 and 8.8 percent in 2009...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29260434
unemployment jumped to 8.1% in february...
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/06/news/economy/jobs_february/index.htm?postversion=2009030608
on july 16, 2009, the fed again changed its prediction, finally admitting that the unemployment rate could reach double-digits...10.1%, they said...
they were not willing to make such a forecast until the unemployment rate had already climbed to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, in the previous month of june, however...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31925437/ns/business-stocks_and_economy
in fact, the rate rose from 7.2% to 9.4% within the first five months after my projection for the job market...while it didn't hit double-digits until october, at 10.1%, i was predicting such a figure 6 1/2 months prior to the federal reserve...
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?series_id=LNS14000000
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on this site, thursday, december 31, 2009...
"while there may be some minor vacillation over the coming months, i expect 12-13% unemployment (as calculated by the bls) by october of 2010..."
also...
"i don't expect the dow jones to finish over 10,000 in 2010...on this, the last day of 2009, it closed at 10,428.05...so, while it may not be a huge drop, i do expect the continuation of the recession to begin taking it's toll on wall street speculators toward the end of the upcoming year..."
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all previous posts have been taken down on this site so i can make adjustments in accuracy, eliminate redundancy, and in order to take personal rants out of posts...(however, my original wall street predictions are still up on the site i originally posted them upon)...
since i have made prognostications for the current year, i felt it was important to begin by posting these forecasts again...
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emergency preparation info...
http://morphinedreams.com/blog5.php/2008/10/19/survival-guide-1
http://www.americanpreppersnetwork.com/
http://mormonism.suite101.com/article.cfm/an_lds_guide_to_beginning_food_storage
