how to make global warming disappear...
By 1voxpopuli on Feb 22, 2010 | In what the f...?
the base period nasa uses to calculate temperature anomalies is 1951-1980...
"The program calculates trends in temperature anomalies -- not absolute temperatures — but changes relative to the average temperature for the same month during the period of 1951-1980."
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html
surfacestations.org uses "Station quality ratings obtained from NOAA/NCDC via this source: Climate Reference Network Rating Guide - adopted from NCDC Climate Reference Network Handbook, 2002, specifications for siting (section 2.2.1) of NOAA's new Climate Reference Network"...
as of this writing, they have surveyed 82% of the stations in the nation, and have calculated figures using 78% (as of may 31, 2009)...since that is a large percentage of the total, roughly 4 out of 5, then we can safely assume that there would be very little difference in the total, once they have reached 100%...
so i will go by their figures, based on 78% that they have calculated into data and published...
as they show, roughly 2/3 have an error of at least 2 degrees celsius...more than 11% of those, which works out to 8%, or 1/12, of the total, are off by at least 5 degrees celsius...
since these are placed in more modern environments, most, if not all, of these stations must have been placed into service in recent decades...
"Class 4 (CRN4) (error >= 2C) - Artificial heating sources <10 meters"
"Class 5 (CRN5) (error >= 5C) - Temperature sensor located next to/above an artificial heating source, such a building, roof top, parking lot, or concrete surface."
the balance (roughly 1/3) are off by a smaller amount, some on the warm side, as the other 2/3 are, and, if i understand this correctly, some are even off on the cool side...since (at least to some degree) these would balance one another out, i will, for the sake of simplicity, say that 1/3 give a perfect reading...
for this example, i will say there were two stations that fit that perfect reading category, that are already in service, during the base period...to make the math easy, we will add 10 more stations, giving us 12 total...out of these 10, 8 would be off (2/3 of the total) by at least 2c, and one of those 8 (1/12) would be at least 5c off...so for simplicity, we will use the minimum error, 7 with +2c, and 1 with +5c, and add 2 with perfect readings...
we are going to flat-line the temperature...i.e., it's always a comfortable 71.6 degrees fahrenheit, which is 22c...this way, we can see the effect of the anomaly easier...
the base period would be two stations of perfect readings, giving us an average with no deviations from accuracy...after all, the older stations are likely the more accurate ones, since they would have been placed into service in less "modern" settings...
the next year, let's say one that is +2c is put into service on january 1...for that year, the three stations have given readings that total a +2c variance...so the total anomaly is +.67...or an average error of 2/3 of one degree for each reading taken by all three stations...the average for year one (following the base period) is now 22.67c...
year two, let's add one on january 1 that has a perfect reading...4 stations, off by a total +2c...the total anomaly is now +.50, or half a degree...although the actual temperature average remains unchanged, it looks like a leveling off of temps, as though they were cooler than the previous year, yet, it still indicates an overall warming trend...22.5c...
it's not likely that each station is placed into service on january 1 each year, so let's factor that in now...
year three, another +2c station, begins taking readings on july 1...4 stations, +2c total error for 6 months, 5 stations, +4c total error, for 6 months...it appears to be warming even more...22.65c...
year four, another perfect station (the last one of four = 1/3 of 12 total)...july 1 again...5 stations, +4c total area for 6 months, and 6 with the same deviance for 6 months...even though we added a perfect station halfway through the year, the anomaly is even greater overall...22.73c...
year 5...no stations added...let's see what this does...6 stations now, 4 perfect, and 2 each at +2c, for the entire year...6 stations, total +4c off...the average anomaly from the base average for this year is 2/3 of one degree...another leveling off, but still an overall warming trend...22.67c...
year 6...let's add two +2c stations (we have no more perfect ones to add to the average), and both on july 1...6 stations, +4c total, for 6 months, and 8 stations, +8c total for 6 months...22.83c...
year 7...two more, in the same fashion...8 stations, +8c total, for 6 months, and 10 stations, +12c total, for 6 months...23.1c...
the temperature is exactly the same...yet it appears that the average has now risen +1.1c...
year 8, without adding a station...10 stations, +12c...23.2c...
year 9, we add our last of the +2c stations that are not off by at least +5...it was added on january 1...11 stations, +14c...23.27c...
year 10...our last station...this one (1/12) has a +5c error...it was added on december 1...11 months of 11 stations with a total error of +14c...and one month of 12 stations with a total error of +19c...23.3c...
year 11...no stations added...12 stations, total error +19c...the anomaly jumps...23.58c...
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the breakdown looks like this...actual temp...average reading...anomaly...
base (year 0)...22c.....22c..........+0.0....
year 1..............22c.....22.67c.....+0.67...
year 2..............22c.....22.5c.......+0.5....
year 3..............22c.....22.65c.....+0.65...
year 4..............22c.....22.73c.....+0.73...
year 5..............22c.....22.67c.....+0.67...
year 6..............22c.....22.83c.....+0.83...
year 7..............22c.....23.1c.......+1.1....
year 8..............22c.....23.2c.......+1.2....
year 9..............22c.....23.27c.....+1.27...
year 10............22c.....23.3c.......+1.3....
year 11............22c.....23.58c......+1.58...
in our example, it is impossible for the actual temperature to have risen, since it is always 22 degrees celsius...
yet, we if we ignore the surface station errors, which become more common as society advances and more and more stations are built into modern settings, it appears as though the area's average temperature has gradually risen by 1.58c (about 3 degrees fahrenheit)...
looking only at the anomalies, relative to the base period, it appears as though the earth is drastically warming, when in fact, even if the actual temp was one degree cooler for year 11, it would still read as an increase in temperature...+0.58c...
there is no global warming...since 2/3 of the subset of 78% of the total number of surface temperature reporting stations in this country are within 10 meters (if not directly on top) of an artificial heating source, i'm going to make a fair assumption that 2/3 of the world's stations are the same...this means that moving 2/3 of the world's surface temperature reporting stations 30 feet further away from the sources causing the error, those temperature anomalies would cease to exist, making global warming magically disappear...
as proven by this example, it could actually be colder, and the anomaly would still read as a warming trend...
somebody needs to do the math with the actual figures, because, if the united nations continues to push this agenda to cool down the earth, and it is in fact possible that the planet is actually cooling anyway, they could bring about catastrophic cold to this planet in a relatively short period of time, trying to do nothing more than overcome the flaws in the anomalies caused by where the most recent surface stations are placed...
